> Right, just as it did in Japan, eh?
Alo, alo, alo
US ain't Japan! The real estate bubble in Tokyo was fantastic(even now, ain't bad). The wealth destroyed was just amazing. Further, the Japanese govt. really messed up the 12 years of stimuli. The bad loans, a direct result of the real estate bubble, still have not been cleared up. There were other excesses like cross holding of companies, which along with banks' tolerance for bad loans which allowed too many weak companies to survive and left an excess in the system. Further, the Japanese were terrified of unemployment and used artificial measures to keep it stable. On top of everything else, Japan has structural problems--aging population coupled with readily available, increasingly sophisticated, low cost producers in the 'hood(chiefly Mainland China).
US has almost none of these problems. We had excesses, but we have worked off most of them. The only point of concern is the low personalsaving rate, esp. compared to Japan and China(38%).
We have received a 70% haircut on the Naz. While I wouldn't buy just anything(or even the QQQ because I just refuse to pay for the junk that's part of the index), I think some companies are quite compelling at these levels.
best
-PWM |
