OCT 9 INDEX UPDATE
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Short-term technical readings:
DOW - upper midrange
SPX - midrange
OEX - midrange
NAZ - upper midrange
NDX - upper midrange
SOX - upper midrange
VIX - upper midrange(inverse to market)
NAZ NET NEW HIGHs-LOWs = negative 59
The TRAN broke its RISING WEDGE to the downside. If the TRAN cannot immediate recovery, that should help weaken the DOW to some degree. As weak as the BKX and TRAN has been, the DOW has been holding up relatively well, not that Im saying that the DOW cannot pullback more.
The negative issue for the NAZ/NDX today was the weakness in the SOX. If the SOX continues to weaken, that should pull the NAZ/NDX down more.
The NAZ NET NEW HIGHs-LOWs, just ain't that bad, it ain't great either. Just so-so, now difinitive clue from the HI-LOs yet.
Other than today's weakness in the SOX, Im not getting any firm hints of a huge decline. Maybe a retest and maybe not even that low for the immediate short-term downswing.
Unless we get disasterous news that tanks the market, Im starting to lean towards a mid-term(30 days) bottom being set by the SEPT LOWs. It could be a more significant bottom, but not confident in calling that yet. Of course, we could still see a retest(+/-7%) of those SEPT LOWs in the NAZ/NDX since the NDX is right now only about 150 points above those SEPT LOWs.
Although I am not that bearish, I had mentioned previously that I wont become bullish until the GAPs in mid-SEPT are closed significantly and that the major indices significantly exceed the 62% FIBONACCI rebound levels calculated off of the MAY peaks, Some are calling for a huge rally. If in fact that some sort of a bottom was set with the SEPT LOWs, I am also expecting a significant rally but I will stay away from using words like huge. As mentioned previously Im more incline of a trading range which at times may have significant oscillations in both directions. |
