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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)

AMZN 233.23

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To: craig crawford who wrote (132082)	10/10/2001 1:18:06 AM
From: Tom D	Read Replies (2) of 164684

The Perfect Storm: Why its different this time. Sorry to take a month to reply, but I have had some health problems. The Bubble of 2000 represented the Perfect Storm of Economic Bubbles:The synergistic coalescence of three extraordinary storms: 1) The Fed loosened U.S. monetary policy in the summer of 1998 even though there was no domestic need for it. The Fed moved to shore up the Asian economies via increasing U.S. liquidity. Its the globalization of markets. I'm not telling you anything you don't already know. Traditionally we allow 18 months for the impact on the economy. 2) The Fed loosened monetary policy to prevent a run on U.S. banks due to fears of a Y2K crisis. 3) Internet mania. In 2000 there were over 600 companies with .com in their names. In the 1920s there were about 600 companies with the word "Motors" in their name. It might be different this time around because the origins are different from typical bull markets preceding this bear market, and because the Fed is making the right moves. I just have a lot of trouble believing its going to last nine years. I'd vote for recovery in H1 of 2003. Tom

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