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Strategies & Market Trends : A.I.M Users Group Bulletin Board

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To: OldAIMGuy who wrote (17035)	10/10/2001 8:18:15 AM
From: Nimbus	Read Replies (1) of 18931

Tom, Very much appreciate your watch on the IW and the relation to prior alignment of bullish signs. I still sense we have at least a quarter or 2 of pullback coming. It does not make a lot of sense to expect stock prices to rise as a recession is deepening. I think the last 2 weeks were just a bounce and that capitulation has not really happened yet. With the 3Q numbers just now coming out, and 4Q likely to a real stinker, I see no compelling reason to be bullish yet. IW I think will set an all time LOW, well under 30 somewhere likely in late December as people and funds executing tax loss selling. Another sign is that few professionals believe we have seen the bottom. I am also curious on why AIMers do not cash out as the IW hits High Risk. Seeing how much net worth is left behind is sickening when one rides out the backside. This shows a flaw in the methodology. I think one needs to cash-out as the IW goes Bearish and not buy at all until it goes to the nearly bullish side of nuetral. Or perhaps one should stop vealies as the IW hits a certain threshold. Thanks again !

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