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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics
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To: Pink Minion who started this subject10/10/2001 5:12:48 PM
From: I. N. Vester  Read Replies (1) of 99280
 
Zeev, has the turnips 2002 outlook changed?

btw congrats on another 'dead on' call for todays low
& reversal. Are you surprised by the strength of the
uptick? What would make you bring in your timing for
the next leg down? sorry for all the questions, but
your continued sharp accuracy in the short-term moves
keeps forcing me to listen very careful to your turnips.

I believe that you were looking for another big
dip down the road in 2002. Now that the turnips have a
'W' mkt recovery with the 2nd bottom in Dec are you
still looking for completing the 'W' in say Jan and then
another crash later in 2002? Or does the 911 event
immediate effect on macroeconomy push the crash you had
later in 2002 due to delayed recession up to Dec?

I feel fairly sure that there is still too much hope of
a 'mild' recession and early recovery and that makes me
feel fairly sure we will see another big dip when the
market prices in a deep recession. Why do you see Dec
as the timing of that dip vs sooner (eg as a terrible oct
unemployment number comes out amid dismal earnings and
no 'visibility')? Does a bad Dec retail season figure in
(which is usually known in advance in early december)?

I'm just curious about why late December - is this driven
by better visibility of deepening recession or more by
cycle 'magic' numbers? and also, given that the turnips
2002 recession has been 'pulled in' by 911 and with the
added fiscal and monetary stimulus that engendered, has the
turnips 2002 low been pulled in?
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