QS:
No, you're not alone, but I think you might be a tad early. Let's take a moment to review the VIX:
finance.lycos.com
The VIX continues to fall, as you can see, and today's rally took me out of a couple of traders, RBAK and ACTM, fwiw. As for RBAK I couldn't turn down a 4 day 32% return; I've had too many of those turn into 4 month 4% return so I know when it's time to cut the asparagus.
Back to the VIX. I believe, given these times and the general uncertainty, that VIX will give us the "run for cover" signal (otherwise known as the "go short") signal a little higher than otherwise, for me that means 27-29, rather than the 23-24 range.
I hate to be cynical, but let me just list the things which make me suspicious about where we are:
It's October
AG & Bob Rubin's Old Tyme Good Tyme's Variety Show Appearances a while ago
The new Peter Lynch Commercial
The FBI pooh-poohing 3 (Three!!) Anthrax cases
The Economy has just taken a 1.25-2 billion$$ direct hit, collateral damage yet to be determined
We're now in a full spending stimulation mode, fiscal discipline is gone with the breezes
The economy stool now stands on two legs: real estate wealth & consumer spending, both are termite eaten and wobbling badly
This rally fueled by Goldman Sachs switching a customer from bonds to stocks??
OSX defying gravity, OPEC inaction, oil prices, inventory fills, dayrates falling and rigs stacking
In any event, it strikes me it's not a bad time to convert some trading gains to cash and practice some more patience. It will soon be a good time to reestablish some short positions and try to ride them down for the next, retest leg of the post 9/11 bottom, imho.
Kb |
