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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis
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To: TREND1 who wrote (21389)10/11/2001 12:43:17 PM
From: eddieww  Read Replies (1) of 52237
 
Yes, I think you are correct. On a semi-log chart a mean amplitude line would be straight, but not a Linear Regression analysis. The Linear Regression I used accounts for all closing prices from '82 - '95, and thus accounts for the amplitude of advance over that time period but not for the period '95 - current. A constant percent growth rate calculation would project to a slightly higher value than what I did. However, I find it useful to use the Linear Regression tool with my charting system over long periods since I feel that such a huge deviation as was seen at the top implies an overshoot to the downside.
If you have a tool that will do the "constant percent growth rate" analysis, I'd love to hear results both including and excluding the '95 - current period.
-edit- A drawn line attempting to approximate such an analysis ends up about where the spx is now. If we are experiencing a cyclical bear such as the others since '82 one could make the argument that we are back to fair value, however if one could include data from 1966, which includes the secular bear market from '66 - '82, the results would be lower. Unfortunately, IQcharts won't include data more than 20 years old, even for a typical Linear Regression.
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