Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis

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To: Paul Shread who wrote (21440)	10/11/2001 3:38:02 PM
From: isopatch	Read Replies (3) of 52237

Hi Paul. Tried to warn gold players last Friday Even thought I was being far to diplomatic in an attempt not to raise any hackles among fellow longs. But instead of looking at and offering other evidence that might be pertinent to a much more cautious toward hold positions in the gold stocks, almost all the replies challenged my use of the COTs and ignored the importance of lease rates which I gave equal stress to in warning that the golds looked vulnerable. Message 16462644 "COTs and lease rates continue to be uninspiring. cftc.gov Commercials increased their net short position for the 3rd consecutive week. Not by very much this week. Howerver: 1. The net short positions is very large by historical standards. 2. Looking at activity by commercials over the past month, that trend is not our friend. At least for the short to intermediate term. Definitely in the LT bull camp. So, comfortable with large core positions, that are nicely profitable here. But in the short to intermediate context, keeping some dry powder in case we see more consolidation makes sense to me. Baring another "Event", 1 & 2 above PLUS the very low lease rates sustained every day this week should keep rallies modest and increase the probablilty of more consolidation in both time and price before the next up leg. thebulliondesk.com (note: 5/10 is how the Brits and most Europeans render October 5th) Isopatch" And from another post later on Friday: "Hi John. And thanks for the supportive comments. Yes, I noticed the sm specs have been going more and more heavily long in recent weeks as commercials have been taking the other side of those trades by shorting. Was hoping someone else pick up on that and mention it. As it is, received quite a few challenging posts about the validity of the COTs from my fellow longs<g> So I'm glad I pulled my punches a bit in my earlier post. Only want to keep people here informed and alert to the risks of any position no matter how bullish we all are for the LT." Yet even thsoe moderately worded warnings garnered more than the usual number of responses. That made me a bit more concerned that folks were perhaps a little too bullish and not being objective about what I considered clear cut negative indications in valid data sets that I'd been building into my fundamental forecasting work for more nearly a year. Have posted before about my work in trying to expand the range of fundamental analysis to include new tools and combining old tools in new ways. But hey, life's too short to argue. My work was flashing an amber warning light last week. But folks obviously weren't receptive, so I just changed the subject back to the LT and posted about how much I like GG. Isopatch

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