CT 12 INDEX UPDATE
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Short-term technical readings:
DOW - borderline CLASS 1 SELL
SPX - CLASS 2 SELL
OEX - CLASS 2 SELL
NAZ - CLASS 2 SELL
NDX - CLASS 2 SELL
SOX - CLASS 1 SELL
VIX - borderline CLASS 2 BUY(inverse to market)
NAZ NET NEW HIGHs-LOWs = slightly positive, dont have exact number
The overall action, including the market internals were bullish and further helps confirms a mid-term(30-day+) bottom.
If the market continues up, I would get CLASS 1 SELL signals today, with the window until MON's highs. As mentioned often, a closing signal is more reliable than a closing signal.
On a short-term basis, there isn't alot of negatives, although notice 2 possible RISING FLAG forming in the TRAN and NWX. The normal move once a the RISING FLAG breaks is to the downside. I didnt say 100%.
If there is a gap this morning and a small body(spinning top/doji/etc) forms at the close for the NAZ/NDX, I would interpret that as a possible DELIBERATION type pattern in the candlestic, which is a reversal pattern with moderate reliability, but also as a lingering positive hint. In light of that significant gap yesterday, another gap today would add to an "exhaustion" effect in candlestic terms, adding to the environment that a short-term pullback is nearing.
In light of the major indicies returning to/near the pre SEPT 11 levels, my question now is - how are the fundamentals doing. Are the fundamentals now supporting the possibility of a new bull market or is the market just returning to/establishing some sort of a trading range, maybe a new/lower trading range(in such case the market may be nearing the top of that range)?
As mentioned previously, I will not get overly bullish until the overall market breaks significantly above the 62% FIBONACCI LEVELs calculated from the MAY peaks. The following are those 62% FIB LEVELs:
DOW - 10100
SPX - 1175
NAZ - 1970
NDX - 1698
Until those levels are broken to the upside significantly, the recent rebound are basicly normal in size per FIBONACCI followers, and some may just consider it just a bear market rally. Another way to look at it, with a positive twist, is that there is still significantly more upside room within the parameters of normal FIB levels. |
