Jim, Q4 is usually the biggest selling month of the year. Historically, Intel and AMD have made the largest revenues in this quarter. In that respect, Q3 seems like a good place to set as "the bottom" for both Intel and AMD.
However, while AMD will not go much lower, I doubt we'll be seeing them break even next quarter. This quarter will have a $100 million loss before one time charges. I wouldn't be surprised if next quarter has a $20-60 million loss. Better, but still not break-even.
The Athlon XP will add to AMD's success, but only in their strongest markets, like the DIYers, tier-3/4 OEMs, or the channel markets. To them, Athlon XP is just more of the best. To the rest of the market, AMD has recovered some ground, but has still failed to convert businesses and consumers alike that are used to the Intel brand name. The blue men may be out, but Pixar-type Aliens are in.
A Northwood chip in November would certainly strengthen Intel's position, but not by most of Intel's end users that wouldn't be able to tell the difference in a 5-15% increase in IPC. The only immediate benefit to Northwood would be if Intel launches a new kind of advertising campaign, but I think that Intel is just going to market Northwood as another Pentium 4. Therefore, a launch in January would be disappointing to the enthusiast community, but wouldn't make much difference to Intel's bottom line, IMO.
wanna_bmw |
