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Technology Stocks : Applied Micro Circuits Corp (AMCC)
AMCC 8.4500.0%Feb 3 4:00 PM EST
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To: techanalyst1 who wrote (1623)10/13/2001 6:50:19 PM
From: FR1  Read Replies (1) of 1805
 
... and not much better until AFTER their next FY starts which is after March at which time he's expecting "moderate growth"...

Isn't that the problem?

PE's and other indicators are based on what growth is expected in the coming 6-9 months but only a crazy person would say they could predict that. Rickey is doing his job of being very conservative in his forcasts.

Many people feel the story plays out like this:

1) The FED raised rates way up in early 2000 and kept them there for far too long (Chambers, Scotty and many others have said this over and over).

2) So industries that were capital intensive and had rapid growth underway were clobbered when funds were choked off. You may have been servicing 400 customers and suddenly found that only 100 could place orders. The newspapers reported this as a "bubble" because it sells papers.

3) Because of this we have to go through a period where bankruptcies are sorted out and we wait for really cheap money. Eventually we get back to seriously building out the net.

4) Many feel we are at the point now where things are turning. Quest recently make announcements about deploying VoIP to its customers. ATT is almost done with its split up. Comcast is chomping at the bit to jump in and spend - as they stated when they bid for ATT broadband. The backroom deals make it look like Comcast will get T's broadband unit one way or the other.

5) If you believe all this is true, then the projections given by the CEOs will still be very conservative but the actual growth will be sharply higher.
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