Applied Micro Circuits Corp (AMCC) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Applied Micro Circuits Corp (AMCC)

AMCC 8.450

0.0%

Feb 3 4:00 PM EST

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To: FR1 who wrote (1626)	10/13/2001 8:27:41 PM
From: techanalyst1	Read Replies (1) of 1805

Those were projections from David Rickey at the annual meeting which was held in the final days of August 2001. Juniper isn't in exactly the same sector, but they are subject to the same macro economic environment that amcc is. They beat consensus estimates, but only came in line with their own guidance from last July. They guided down for next year. There isn't really any reason to think that amcc is suddenly going to change their views either. It wouldn't take a whole lot for amcc to do that though since they are bringing in so much less than in the past, so just a few extra deals could be just their ticket or maybe some extra "turns biz". Interest rate increases didn't help, but the fact of the matter is that customers across the sector were over ordering and hoarding and too much product was out there. That's why interest rate cuts alone are not helping, but rather capex estimates keep getting cut. If growth were going to be a lot higher, why is juniper cutting their estimates for next year and not raising them? They did pretty well in giving guidance for this quarter. We'll see what guidance we get when amcc reports results. They've been conservative in the past. The stock sure acts like estimates are too low. I won't put it past them to exceed them. I would love to hear them guide up and I'd love to hear David Rickey say that he is pretty sure the biz is turning because the "turns biz" has gone up dramatically. Do you really expect that amcc will be able to see sequential 20-30% quarter over quarter growth on a sustainable basis again? To exceed their old growth, they are going to have to do even better than that. They may be able to do that when earnings are low, but as they grow earnings again, I have my doubts that they can perform that well on a sustainable basis again, no matter what interest rates are. Btw... amcc has no forward PE based on consensus estimates because the consesus is for them to lose money next year. Once the estimates move to earning money again, the pe will be astronimical and pretty much useless as a means to value the company. TA

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