Patron,
I have the utmost respect for you, but I find your summary a little blase -g. I finally got around to looking at the updated COT's. Looking at only the NASDAQ side for now, I see that the commercials are not believers. On the big NASDAQ contract they are now shorter than they were at the May high. They are convinced we are close to a top. I also see that the small and large spec's are near record bullish going back to early Spring.
As for the small contract, well, who gives a rat's ass -g. The open interest there has shrunk so much it's all over the place for now. Besides, recent history shows that the correlation between the mini and the cash is not as strong as the big contract versus the cash.
Anyway, let's count those minis as what they are, 1/5 a big contract and see how short the commercials are. The answer is still a whopping 12,229 big contracts short. This is near the extremes shown at tops.
Also, the commercials only covered for 2 weeks, and very little in the second. Now they are getting short again and fast. This is not at all what one sees when they believe we have put the bottom well behind us.
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COT...some covering in SPX offset by bigtime shorting of the SPX Emini, some shorting in the NDX offset by covering of the NDX emini, and some covering in gold: |
