Iraq has an extremely large Shiite population, so I don't see Bin Laden appealing to them any more than he does to the Iranians. And the Kurds probably don't have much fervor for Bin Laden either, but that could change.
I've seen stats that suggest between 53 and 60 percent are followers of Shiah Islam, with most of the balance (42 - ?) percent being of Sunni Islam - so its not overwhelming.
But Iraq... well, the Republican guards have the guns and their security apparatus, and so long as there is no discernible, or credible, ability for the opposition to fight him, they will remained subjugated.
Plus, Saddam Hussein is of Sunni roots. The ruling regime is already Sunni. Perfect ground for OBL & Taleban to walk into.
I take your point about Syria; my thoughts on Iraq where that if Saddam was suddenly removed from the picture (from within or the US), might not OBL or Omar or other Taleban figure but lets pick on OBL - might not he easily slip into power there?
Iraq being a sore spot for the US, lets say the plan is roughly this:
- inflame tensions in the world via 9-11
- place suspicion on Iraq via chem/bio or nuke attack
- causing US to take on Saddam
- resulting in power vacumn in Iraq
- to which OBL slips into comfortably.
Just a thought, I'm not married to it LOL
PS, I figure Saudi Arabia isn't next in line to fall since there are US troops there already... so Iraq, Syria as you suggest, others might be first. |
