heehee - NDX H&S.
And not only on the NDX, best H&S on the SPX, Dow also has one.
Have them on my radar screen since mid-April.
They look like H&S, but depending on the charting programm, they are more or less appearant.
The one problem is that the shoulders should form in about the same time.
Left shoulder on the NDX, on my charts, took from Jun 1997 to Oct 1998 (15 months).
Right shoulder Apr-Sep 2001 (5 mos.) is, IMHO, too short and not valid.
Now, call that H&S an inverted cup 'n handle, and this one could be valid.
My favorite pattern would be a H&S with an horizontal neckline through Oct 1998 lows, which would trace the same way on the Dow, the SPX and the Naz.
This would imply that we have set a temporary bottom and would rally through 2002 with early Jan-Feb 2003 as disappointing earnings season.
IMHO, cos. are meeting lower guided earnings, throwing all but the kitchen sink as "one time charges" or "investment reductions" in the balance. In the hope to amortize their losses fast in a down market.
Seems to be working as we effectively rally in this earnings season.
Next fiscal year (Dec 2002), there will be no dead weight left, no one-time charges left to be excluded from the balances, no way to present pro-forma.
And as economy will not make a 180 deg turn in a matter of a year, earnings will disappoint.
Leaves more time to draw a neat right shoulder <ggg>
(Neckline = 1357 on the COMPX, and classic way to measure would be negative -2400 <vbg>. |
