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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates
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To: Thomas Mercer-Hursh who wrote (47866)10/15/2001 1:56:03 PM
From: Stock Farmer  Read Replies (2) of 54805
 
Hi Thomas,

I have returned from a sleepless weekend with a pack of cub-scouts in the woods. And now see the discussion on valuation has led you to offer up a complicated test against which you would have us run our methods of valuation... circulating around this point:

But then why practice on something which can't pass a test like this? Why adopt a method going forward which can't handle predicting the past? And, unless that test is made, how do I have any idea whether the numbers or signals it is giving me have any value?


And spiraling off into several tangents. On the surface, this application of the scientific method seems reasonable. But then how does the method you currently practice fare under such tests?

Oops, it doesn't.

I also suspect that you haven't performed the tests at all on what you use, or want to use, and instead toss these up as some academic froth for others to chew on. Which makes them hypothetical tests. And less tested by practice than the methods that have been offered up to you... hmmm.

Which leads me to note that this hypothetical test method of yours has neither succeeded in identifying a successful valuation method nor discrediting an unsuccessful valuation method. Which by your logic would make it merely a theory... until such time as your test is tested against its ability to test methods... - vbg - ...

So we can trapse down that rat-hole with you as far as you would wish. I personally think it's a total waste of time and tangential to the thrust of the discussion.

Which might be on how valuation methodologies apply specificly to GGamers.

John
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