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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: Pirah Naman who wrote (47917)	10/15/2001 4:26:50 PM
From: Thomas Mercer-Hursh	Read Replies (1) of 54805

My experience is that the opposite is true. Bear in mind that while mega-bubbles may be rare, mini-bubbles, sector-bubbles, and company-specific-bubbles are not. So, your experience is that trading in and out of these companies as they become over and undervalued produces more profit than simply holding? But you've already rejected the experiences of those who use variations of it. That is how it works in practice. But I don't have any data on anyone's experiences, especially not empirical evidence. All I have is "I like this approach" and "my technique says such and such about this company today". Perhaps there are people who have kept records of the decisions they made and who have made comparisons of the results with alternate scenarios, but save for a few very vague references, this is not data accessible to me. So hurry up and build us that time machine. No time machine required, any more than doing good science requires a time machine. Before one tries predicting that which hasn't happened yet, one starts by seeing how well a proposed explanatory system works on observations that one already has.

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