So, your experience is that trading in and out of these companies as they become over and undervalued produces more profit than simply holding?
I have little (if any) experience with "trading in and out." I'm a very slow mover. However, my experience is that selling them when they become significantly overvalued (by my estimates) has resulted in better long term results than if I had held them. My experience is that not buying them when they are significantly overvalued (by my estimates) has resulted in better long term results than if I had bought them. My experience is that buying them when they are undervalued (by my estimates) has resulted in better long term results than if I had not bought them, or than if I had bought them without consideration to relative value. My experience is that when I have not followed my own rules with regards to this, I have usually regretted it.
But I'm not going to tell you that my experience is statistically valid, will work going forward, is better than other methods, or can even be "validated." While it makes sense to me, there may be other explanations. Like you, I can only go on what I see.
But I don't have any data on anyone's experiences, especially not empirical evidence.
Access to another person's transaction history is usually hard to come by.
No time machine required, any more than doing good science requires a time machine. Before one tries predicting that which hasn't happened yet,
This keeps coming up. You want to predict; valuation is not for predicting, but to improve odds.
one starts by seeing how well a proposed explanatory system works on observations that one already has.
You've rejected the large scale academic studies, so the trends, improvement of odds, whatever you want to call them, aren't going to be available until such time as you can conduct a large scale study that meets your standards. If you want a small sample study on a subgroup you could do that in a few hours.
I think that this horse is falling apart and quite possibly putrefying. :-)
- Pirah |
