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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates
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To: Pirah Naman who wrote (47928)10/15/2001 5:34:26 PM
From: Thomas Mercer-Hursh  Read Replies (1) of 54805
 
Access to another person's transaction history is usually hard to come by.

One doesn't need actual transaction history. Number of shares, in particular, is irrelevant to the question.

But, even so, I'm not really interested in anyone's specific history unless it were to be offered as an example. What I am much more interested is a set of rules which can then be applied to a sample of companies over some period of time to see what the rules would indicate and what the consequences would be compared to other rules.

You want to predict; valuation is not for predicting, but to improve odds.

Err ... don't you make predictions in order to obtain your valuation? And what is "improve odds" except predictive advantage?

You've rejected the large scale academic studies

Only in the little I know of what is there. I don't reject them all categorically if you know of one or more which really address this point well, I'm happen to check it out. I am only skeptical since it seems like one needs to make adjustments in pulling numbers out of the financial statements of companies like those we discuss here and I am skeptical that this has been done in those studies, if only because it is a bit tedious for any large study.

If you want a small sample study on a subgroup you could do that in a few hours.

I hope it doesn't have to wait for that ... I am less optimistic than you about how long it would take me to work it out.
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