Exuberance is a relative term. It looks like we are now going to see another stepdown in bookings, if what NVLS is reporting is representative of the industry, which is likely. I have posted in the last couple of months, that I thought bookings were at trough levels, wouldn't go much lower, and the main question was when bookings would start up (the U vs V debate). Looks like I was being Irrationally exuberant.
Now, the question is, is this new and worse outlook already in the stocks? That is, did the professionals and insiders and those close to insiders, hear about this (further) falloff in bookings in the last 4 weeks, before anyone on this thread did, and that's why AMAT went to 27? My guess is (just a guess), it's only partly in the stock, and we go lower in the next few weeks.
If we don't plunge tomorrow, I'm going to think seriously of lightening up on my AMAT. I'm going to listen to the NVLS CC, and think about it. |
