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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group

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To: Ilaine who wrote (5344)10/15/2001 9:17:16 PM
From: Michael Watkins  Read Replies (1) of 281500
 
Personally I am willing to cut back on 13.5% consumption of gasoline and fuel oil (percentage of crude oil imported from Arab OPEC). I am going to start riding my bike to work, school and the grocery store, and raise the thermostat.

Hey, I like this! (We pull our 2 and 4 year old around in the bike trailer for much of the year).

One problem perhaps, 13.5% is probably two small, and if things really get out of control, you are going to need to increase the list.

You have:

From Arab OPEC as follows (in thousands of barrels a day):

Algeria 0
Iraq 697
Kuwait 287
Qatar 0
Saudi Arabia 1,683
UAE 0
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2,667

To which we must also add, potentially, other states which harbor terrorists or may suffer revolts as a result of unrest in the Islamic world:

Other OPEC:
Indonesia 47 (been in the press as of late!)
Nigeria 877 (been in the press as of late!)
Other Non OPEC:
Malaysia 13
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At risk oil total (granted, not looked at all the other risks out there, including shipping risks from otherwise friendly countries):

3,004 tbpd
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BUT: I think your math is wrong - its not 13.5% reduction required - its much higher, closer to 30% reduction if we lose those sources. Adding the three additional sources I list, brings the reduction from source of crude to close to 33%.

If any oil company has the cojones to quit importing oil from the Middle East, they've got my business.

It may come to that, but then Congress will be passing oil company bail out packages of some sort. Many of them have billions invested in the ME.

I have a picture of my father in law sitting atop a camel in Iran, or was it Libya?, some 40 years ago. He worked all over the ME for a number of oil companies. They've been there for decades of course and have big holdings.

But while I'm rambling, a little recession or a big recession will help curb oil use as well. Just as well, the military may need the extra.

AND, just to remind everyone, Canada remains the US's most stable and is the second largest source of supply. 1,331 thousand barrels a day of crude. I'm sure this amount will trend upwards. Mexico follows closely at 1,313. tbpd.

Lots of Canadian oil companies being bought up by US firms lately and over the past few years.... things that make you go hmnnn...
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