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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group
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To: Michael Watkins who wrote (5563)10/16/2001 1:19:44 PM
From: Sultan  Read Replies (2) of 281500
 
Recession of any kind, north american, localized to mideastern or even global is not an answer IMHO.. Neither is embargo.. You have to get the majority of population educated enough and prosperous enough that they have something to lose.. When majority has nothing to lose, that is where you will find your kamikazes.. A perfect breeding ground for the disfranchised. Mind you, you will always have zealots who are on different wave length altogether but I think longer run, better to create an environment that makes it such so that general population will not sympathize with these nuts and then they could be marginalized, tracked and controlled.. A real long term project I am afraid.. But I think we have already started so there is some hope..

Argument sake, let us say, Saudi Arabia is destablised to a point due to economy that ruling princes are overthrown.. That would be a perfect nightmare scenario for the markets as well as mid east I think.. On the other hand, I understand Saudi Arabia could not really function if they did not have all these foreign workers so who knows.. May be all these foreign workers will go back home from middle east.. Nah.. Not going to happen either..

As for oil and reliance on mideast, I remember the first oil crisis in 1974.. The line ups.. The outrage.. Net result was cars become more efficient, smaller etc. so that oil consumption would be reduced.. Lasted for a while and then most people eventually forget all of that.. Is this going to be any different this time..

FWIW..
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