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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis
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To: Jan Crawley who wrote (21767)10/16/2001 6:21:22 PM
From: TechTrader42  Read Replies (3) of 52237
 
Well, I don't rightly know. It's been my impression that many market timers, while priding themselves on their objectivity, have been at the mercy of the prevailing sentiment lately, with a few outstanding exceptions. Those who've consistently relied on their systems -- and not on what they believe to be educated guesses -- have fared the best. Larry Dudash has stuck to his guns, based on a system he trusts, for example, despite the volatile nature of the market. To my mind, that's what good TA is all about. And Donald Sew has continued to provide insight into the market with his system, recognizing that signals can be negated and that no system provides certainty.

Even some systems that have been highly reliable have run into problems -- including whipsaws and extended breakouts (or breakdowns) when indicators were at extremes and suggested reversals.

Overall, I think the lessons have been that traders should rely on systems that they know and trust (generally their own systems); accept that their systems can fail them; screen out the prevailing sentiment; quit guessing which direction the market is going to go, because they'll be wrong at least 50% of the time, however much they try to re-spin their predictions in hindsight; and make every effort to limit losses.

But whatever. I'll be burned at the stake for suggesting that the predictions haven't been all that great on the whole.
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