You'll want to go back and review those notes, Paul. I did say a reversal to the upside was possible, and also stressed that breakouts and breakdowns can occur from extreme levels -- that the market can continue to fall when the CI's are at 0, or rise when they're at 100 (and in some notes I cited examples).
Based on the fact that the CI's were oversold in the ST, MT and LT, I did think before Sept. 11 that a rally was likely to occur soon. I also cautioned that it might not happen. But that aside, I thought privately that it looked pretty good, and the futures were nicely up at 8:30 a.m. Sept. 11. Well, so much for that. The system has its limitations, and stops are necessary. Stops can be useless at times, however.
So is the system flawed? Yes. Can it predict the future direction of the market? No. Is this the first time that I've said it can't predict future prices? Hardly. I say it in most notes.
As for calling "a bottom," I haven't made predictions regarding the possible end of the bear market. The outlook has been too uncertain, or even bleak. I have suggested possible shorter-term reversals in course. But "a bottom"? No way. Not no how. Haven't been a bull, and haven't been a bear. Just been an oscillating ocelot.
If I've given the impression that I've "called the bottom," or that the CI's can predict the future direction of the market, I'll have to start posting my notes in several languages, with more boldface, so there are no further misunderstandings.
But all that said, has the system been very reliable lately in identifying possible reversals? Not really. It's had its good moments, and its had its dismal moments. |
