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Technology Stocks : Applied Micro Circuits Corp (AMCC)

AMCC 8.450

0.0%

Feb 3 4:00 PM EST

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To: Raymond Duray who wrote (1638)	10/17/2001 3:02:25 PM
From: FR1	Read Replies (2) of 1805

RD, I agree with you that there was a gold rush mentality. Personally, I agree with some of the wags that say many of the businesses simply intended to lay fiber and sell the net they created to bigger fish (like T and WCOM) even though their own studies projected a extremely small customer base. Because of all this, there would have been a shake out - especially in the long haul market where most of the activity was. The tight money policy of the FRB clearly caused a much more dramatic collapse than what would have occurred if the market was left to sort things out on its own. Not only were the telcoms frozen out of funds but the customers that buy their service were being choked off. That's my complaint and of course it changes nothing. I do recall reading some studies that showed only the WashDC-Mahattan corridor as being clearly overbuilt (too much dark fiber). There was some argument that maybe Manhattan-Hollywood was overdone but others disagree. Other than that nothing was overdone. The metro market was hardly started. The severe downturn in the economy killed the telcom market but it did not kill the need or growth potential for broadband. Fiber to the home is still the target. AOL and MSFT today both talked up video on demand and Quest is pushing ahead with VoIP. IMHO, we are in a bottom trading range (providing the terrorist don't come up with something dramatic). I also think that before we have a clear indication from CEOs that things are on the mend the brokers will act and price the good news into stocks. Maybe the thing to do is to buy leaps and protect them with short term puts?

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