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Technology Stocks : Amati - MAIN THREAD

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To: fedhead who wrote (609)	7/9/1996 6:13:00 PM
From: Rupert Baines	of 700

re: ADSL, voice & cannibalisation Anindo, You have it somewhat reversed... ANY data connection could be used for voice - the Telcos realise that and do not appreciate it. VocalTec etc can do it already on a standard modem; with a cable modem it is trivial. The only complication comes from who gains and who loses - in general for voice-over-the-net applications it is the long distance carrier who stands to lose the most. In contrast, the local operators -who are the ones who will install ADSL- are VERY keen to get data OFF there voice network AWAY _ BEGONE ! Instead of paying a flat rate for the occaisional, short voice call, I tie up their expensive switch for hours at a time dialling my (local) POP. Imagine what that does to an RBOCs planned capacity ? Imagine what it does to their asset economics ? That is a GREAT reason to rollout ADSL - instead of freeloaders with voiceband, you free-up scarce switching capacity, and shift the data to a new (fee paying!!) network. Talk about win-win rupert >I don't expect the telcos to be in any hurry to deploy ADSL. >Unless the cable companies start deploying cable modems >and gaining significant market penetration >the telcos have absolutely nothing >to gain by rapidly deploying ADSL. Think about it >providing a 1.5 M to 6 Meg pipe to the homes >threatens their voice franchise. Let >us say they do provide ADSL to the homes, >whats stopping some ISP like AOL, >PSI net using some of that bandwidth for high >quality voice and the rest for data.

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