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Biotech / Medical : VD's Model Portfolio & Discussion Thread

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To: Andrew H who wrote (1395)6/25/1997 12:15:00 AM
From: Vector1   of 9719
 
In case anyone here doesn't follow the GENZL thread, in light of the iminent FDA approval here is my valuation

CSFB estimates 4500-5000 proceedures performed in 98 which they estimate will result in breakeven. Given the backlog and the momentum they will gain as the proceedure becomes accepted I believe they have a shot of earning 50cents in 98 and 1.50-2.00 in 99. I have seen market size estimates at 40,000 plus proceedures a year. My current valuation model present values $1.50 x 30 or 45 per share in 99. Applying a 30% pv discount the current value is north of 25 per share.
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