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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis
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To: David Alan Cook who wrote (1913)6/25/1997 12:38:00 AM
From: Richard Estes   of 42787
 
Analysis of PILGRIM AMERICA
(PACC)

Reviewed on 6/24/97

High: 15.000
Low: 14.375
Close: 14.750
Change: 0.750 (0.054%)

Volume Today: 98,000 shares.
PACC closed up on volume 274.43% above average.

The most recently confirmed resistance level was at 6.38. With the current price above this level at 14.75, you may look for this previous resistance level of 6.38 to become downside support.

PILGRIM AMERICA is currently 66.8% above its 200-day moving average and is in a flat trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 90 days. Money appears to be flowing into and out of PILGRIM AMERICA at a relatively equal pace (which is neutral).

NEXT DAY'S HIGH PRICE TARGET:



15.1875



NEXT DAY'S LOW PRICE TARGET:



14.5625



Statistical Change from
Volatility Previous period
10-period 68.6415 6.39
21-period 71.3628 0.11
39-period 76.4477 1.12
90-period 81.8766 0.30

Bollinger Bands are 42.79% narrower than normal.

Stochastic Oscillator(5,3): 54.167

There were no Stochastic Buy or Sell signals generated today. The last signal was a Buy 36 Period(s) Ago.

CMO
The current value of the Chande Momentum Oscillator is -2.5641.

The Chande Momentum Oscillator (CMO) shows an overbought condition when it's above 50. Oversold conditions are defined as values below -50.

Currently, the CMO does not show an overbought or oversold condition.

Aroon

There were no Aroon signals generated today. The last signal was a Buy 6 period(s) ago.

Directional Indicator

There were no Directional Indicator signals generated today.

Plain MACD

There were no MACD signals generated today. The last signal was a Buy 120 period(s) Ago.

Stop and Reverse (SAR)

An SAR Buy signal was generated today. If you are short, this might be a good place to exit.

Summary

The current market condition for PILGRIM AMERICA is:

Bullish

The close is currently Above it's 89 period moving average.
The close is currently Below it's 34 period moving average.
The close is currently Above it's 13 period moving average.

With strong confirmation from the short term trend and a current Buy signal. There is additional confirmation from one or more Buy signals within the last 10 days. Refer to the Indicator Analysis table above for details.

Statistical Table

smoothed r-squared 0.011

Standard Error 0.412

Linear Regression Slope 0.011

Historical Volatility 0.381

rsquared is currently at an extreme low. This indicates that there is not a strong trend in tact. This value should increase soon. When it does, there is likely to be a new short term trend.

The current trough of rsquared is greater than the previous trough. This indicates strength of the long term trend.The current slope of the close is positive moving lower indicating weakness or a slowdown of the medium term uptrend.
The standard error is 0.412 At this level there is much lower than normal volatility around the current trend and traders are probably in general agreement , allowing the security to trend easily. The price is probably following the regression slope well.

Here is what I think:
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 200) and oversold (below -150) areas. I consider this a good short term indicator. The current value of the CCI is 101. The last signal was a sell 20 period(s) ago.
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