mishedlo: Heck, several days ago Don gave 32.5 as a possible reversal target for QQQ on any pullback, I seem to recall. That doesn't mean it'll hold there -- just that there are degrees of "oversold." I know we're all supposed to think the worst now, because of yesterday's selloff, but a strong downtrend isn't a sure thing. Do the indicators say it is? Some of them kept giving sell signals for more than a week, apparently, while the market continued to rally. Stochastics and all the other oscillators can reverse course at any moment, no matter where they are. They show what happened, not what's going to happen. All stochastics shows is how high or low prices are now in relation to where they've been. Most systems based on indicators don't even beat buying and holding in system tests. In fact, many perform abysmally. Stochastics, for example, doesn't give promising results in system tests.
The ST CI's are very low today:
ST Naz CI:4.112, 50.748
MT Naz CI:68.956, 84.054
LT Naz CI:46.854, 57.113
ST S&P CI:8.187, 55.723
MT S&P CI:75.47, 86.255
LT S&P CI:52.173, 59.622
The LT CI's have been muddling along in the midrange. This is a market defined by uncertainty. |
