re: EMC on (bleak) near term oulook for GPRS in Asia
Many operators across the region are planning to launch GPRS at the end of 2001 and early 2002 as more GPRS handsets, in terms of volume and variety, become available ... operators would do well to maintain GPRS' current low profile in the next six months, as there appears to be little indication at present that GPRS will take off in early 2002.
Rate charts and coverage maps at link below
>> GPRS Christmas Unlikely in Southeast Asia
Liz Hall
EMC Cellular
October 18
e-searchwireless.com
During 2000 many operators in south east Asia announced that they intended to launch GPRS, 'the saviour of WAP', during 2001. However the lack of full commercial GPRS launches since the beginning of 2001 in the region, demonstrates that many operators have failed to live up to their GPRS service roll-out forecasts. Problems with systems integration, lack of GPRS handsets, the disappointment of WAP and the continued success of SMS means many operators have either launched GPRS with little or no publicity, or are not planning to offer GPRS on a full commercial basis until well into 2002. The experience of the WAP failure, in particular, has meant operators have learnt their lesson when it comes to raising consumer expectations about the latest service to hit the mobile cellular market.
Australia
Telstra announced the start of GPRS services in March 2001 . In the seven months following the launch, limited supplies of the Motorola Timeport P7389i GPRS handset meant that according to local media reports there were less than 1,000 GPRS users on the Telstra network at the end of July 2001. The Timeport's 2 downlink/1 uplink capability means that the average data speed for a GPRS user falls between 20-30Kbps.
Despite the launch of Siemens and Ericsson GPRS handsets in other markets in south east Asia in July 2001, the Timeport P7389i handset was the only available GPRS handset in Australia until Ericsson launched its T39 unit in September 2001. Local sources at the beginning of October 2001 have indicated that Ericsson's T39 unit is still not widely available in retail outlets across Sydney. Motorola's V66 GPRS handset was due to be launched at the end of September 2001 . Telstra have announced that alternative GPRS handsets will be available by the end of 2001.
Once subscribers to Telstra's MobileNet Flexi-Plans are able to get their hands on a GPRS-enabled phone they can connect to Telstra's GPRS service for a fee of AUD 0.22 (USD 0.11) per GPRS session, which ends if a user does not send or receive data for an hour or more. In addition WAP/GPRS users pay AUD 0.022/KB for up to 200KB, then AUD 0.011 for each additional KB. Telstra is reportedly planning to introduce subscription based charging in the near future.
<snip Telstra's GPRS tariffs >
In September 2000 Cable and Wireless Optus announced the launch of the first operational GPRS network in Sydney and Melbourne. The service was to be initially aimed at a limited number of corporate customers with national coverage planned for the end of October 2000 . GPRS handsets on offer to corporate users were the Mitsubishi Geo, Sagem MW 939 and MW 959. Optus stated that consumer subscribers would have to wait until later in 2000 to access the service, however a nationwide consumer service is not expected to be offered until the end of 2001 .
Vodafone Australia are continuing to conduct GPRS trials through the corporate sector and are expected to launch a consumer service by the end of 2001 .
Brunei
With a subscriber base of 117,880 at the end of June 2001, Datastream Technology (DST) has no plans to introduce GPRS in the near future. Brunei's only public cellular operator only introduced SMS messaging onto its GSM-900 network in June 2001 . SMS users are required to pay a one-time registration fee of BND 10.00 and a monthly subscription fee of BND 3.00. Each SMS sent costs BND 0.05 and receiving a message is free.
Indonesia
PT Indosat launched IM3's GSM-1800 network during September 2001 on the islands of Batam and Bintan with plans to extend the service to East Java in October 2001 and nationwide coverage is expected within three years . IM3 offers WAP services through its own internet portal, however GPRS services are not expected to be launched in Indonesia's major cities until at least Q2 2002.
Lippo Telekom launched its GSM-1800 network in April 2001 in East Java . The USD 16.6 million network contract signed with Ericsson in November 2000 included an optional GPRS upgrade which has yet to be implemented.
Indonesia's largest mobile operator in terms of number of subscribers, Telkomsel, began a trial of GPRS at the end of 2000 through mobile banking in collaboration with Panin Bank and HSBC customers. According to a Telkomsel spokesperson, the customer's initial interest in the service was high, however a lack of content meant the service could not be launched commercially. Telkomsel, which is 77% owned by PT Telkom, launched its dual-band GSM-9/18 network in the Greater Jakarta Business District area, to ease congestion on the existing GSM network, at the end of August 2001 . Telkomsel has not given any indication as to when GPRS services will be launched on the dual-band network, however a full commercial nationwide roll-out is not expected until at least late 2002 or early 2003.
Indonesian mobile cellular operators recognise that the country is lagging behind in terms of cellular technology, when compared to other markets within the southeast Asia region. SMS usage within the country is only now beginning to increase significantly as a result of full inter-operator SMS being introduced in May 2001. With cellular penetration remaining low at 2.3% at the end of September 2001, Indonesian operators will continue to focus on subscriber growth, network roll-outs and extra capacity for SMS usage to increase cellular revenue. While watching operators, with declining revenue and ARPU in highly penetrated markets, struggle to overcome the numerous problems associated with rolling out GPRS services during 2001 and H1 2002.
Most operators within Indonesia are not expected to launch full commercial nationwide GPRS until at least 2003 or when the 2.5G service experiences a boom in more developed countries within the region.
Malaysia
Celcom was the first Malaysian operator to conduct a GPRS test and start GPRS trials over its GSM-900 network in October 2000. Aiming to be the first operator to commercially launch GPRS in Malaysia, Celcom reported that certain applications such as web browsing and the sending and receiving of data files had been successful in initial testing. However Celcom has yet to fully launch commercial GPRS nationwide. A lack of handsets during H1 2001, in particular, and system constraints have been blamed for the delay. Celcom is now planning to launch GPRS in early 2002.
All five main Malaysian cellular operators have undertaken extensive GPRS trials since the end of 2000. Digi Telecommunications and Maxis Communications appear to have adopted a wait and see approach. Digi has stated that despite its GSM-1800 network being GPRS ready it has no plans at present to roll-out GPRS services. Maxis Communications is awaiting the arrival of sufficient quantities of GPRS handsets into Malaysia before it commits to launching GPRS, however the company is expected to start offering GPRS services by the end of Q1 2001.
Telekom Cellular awarded GSM-1800 network contracts to Alcatel and Motorola at the beginning of October 2001 , . Both vendors are required to supply GPRS core network infrastructure which will be integrated within the extended GSM network. The state owned operator is currently trialing GPRS and plans to launch the service in Q1 2002 in the major cities of Kula Lumpur, Penang, Johor Bahru and then nationwide by the end of 2002.
TimeCel announced the limited commercial roll-out of its GPRS network in the Klang Valley, Penang and Prai in December 2000, much to the surprise of other regional operators as GPRS-enabled handsets were not commercially available . Subscribers to TimeCel's 017 packages who have a GPRS-enabled handset are currently able to subscribe to GPRS services at a rate of MYR 0.05 per minute.
The recent surge in SMS usage since full interoperability SMS was introduced at the beginning of September 2001 in Malaysia , should force Celcom and other Malaysian operators to re-think their GPRS launch dates. The popularity of SMS and the launch of WAP services by Celcom in June 2000 demonstrates that Malaysian operators can concentrate on existing investments in data services to increase cellular revenue and delay the launch or full commercial nationwide roll-out of GPRS until the many problems associated with the 2.5G service are ironed out . While operators in Australia, Singapore and New Zealand are relying on GPRS to reverse their declining ARPU, Malaysian operators can afford to learn from current GPRS launches in these three countries and their own GPRS trials, while still enjoying rising ARPU figures caused by the steep increase in SMS usage. Telekom Malaysia has seen its ARPU increase from USD 14.47 at the beginning of 2001 to USD 18.55 at the end of June 2001 . Voice traffic for Maxis Communications, not data, is also still the priority according to Ross Chia, head of mobile business at Maxis, because this is where the majority of revenue will continue to come from. Data traffic is seen as a means to boost voice traffic, as increased data usage by subscribers in Japan and the Philippines has led to a growth in voice calls.
New Zealand
Lack of GPRS handsets at Vodafone New Zealand prevented the operator from launching GPRS services nationwide before Q3 2001. Vodafone conceded in Q2 2001 that limitations on the availability of GPRS handsets meant the company was initially concentrating on commercial applications rather than the consumer market . Consumer GPRS did not become available until September 2001 as GPRS handsets such as the Motorola Timeport P7389i and Ericsson R520M became more widely available.
< snip Vodafone New Zealand GPRS tariffs >
Telecom New Zealand launched its CDMA-800 network in July 2001 . The CDMA network will offer services that are similar to GPRS, known as 1XRTT, at the beginning of 2002. Several CDMA-handsets with 2.5G capabilities were already available when Telecom New Zealand launched their CDMA network.
Philippines
Smart Communications completed its first network test of GPRS in July 2000 and had completed its roll-out of GPRS nationwide by the end of 2000. Nearly six months later rival Globe Telecom announced that its GPRS infrastructure was ready for full commercial roll-out . Despite Smart's head start, a lack of GPRS handsets has prevented the two companies from launching full commercial GPRS services until H1 2002 .
Digitel is currently rolling out a GSM-1800 network with GPRS core network infrastructure supplied by Alcatel. The network will cover the larger metropolitan Manila area, Cebu Pacific and the urban regions of Luzon, Visayas and Mindano and is expected to launch in the middle of 2001.
The Philippines appears to be a prime market for GPRS take-off given its position as SMS capital of the world. However the initial high cost of GPRS handsets will deter most Filipino's from taking up the new service as long as low cost SMS based services and WAP exist. Both Globe and Smart are currently concentrating on developing and pushing SMS and WAP based services and cutting the number of allocated free text messages in an effort to increase cellular revenue and ARPU, which stood at USD 13.75 at the end of June 2001.
Singapore
MobileOne (M1) launched GPRS services in July 2001 and SingTel recently commenced services in September 2001 . Singapore's retail outlets are currently selling the Ericsson T39, Siemens S45 and ME 45, and Motorola V66, which all appear to be widely available to purchase. A spokesperson at a SingTel retail outlet stated that the Ericsson T39 was the most popular selling GPRS handset because of its stylish appearance. However a few doors down, sources at a MobileOne retail outlet in central Singapore confirmed that the Motorola V66 was the most popular choice for consumers because it produced the fastest data speeds due to its 4 downlink/1 uplink capability. Sources at both retail outlets confirmed that due to the fashion conscious attitude that typifies the Singaporean youth market, GPRS will not become a major revenue earner until Nokia GPRS handsets become available.
Despite M1 being the first to launch GPRS in Singapore, the operator's WAP service saw the most significant growth during August and September 2001, experiencing a resurgence as a result of free WAP-enabled phones being given to those M1 CDMA subscribers who transferred to M1's GSM-9/19 network .
Thailand
Advanced Info Services (AIS) launched its GPRS service on 1 October 2001 but has restricted its coverage to Bangkok and a few provincial cities in order to test the demand for GPRS . Thailand's leading cellular operator, in terms of number of subscribers, intends to initially target laptop and PDA numbers who are estimated by AIS to number 50,000. A further 50,000 high end mobile subscribers who are heavy SMS users are also to be targeted in the limited roll-out. Vichien Mektrakarn, vice president of AIS, has reportedly stated that a lack of handsets and insufficient content had prevented a full roll-out of GPRS, which is a view held by other operators in the Asia-Pacific region who have already launched GPRS . Language problems associated with most functions and content being displayed in English rather than Thai were also cited by Mektrakarn as obstacles to the success of GPRS within Thailand.
< snip AIS rate chart >
Rival Thai cellular operator Total Access Communications (TAC) stated that its GPRS service was still undergoing tests on its Nokia supplied GSM-1800 network but that it expected to launch the service nationwide by the end of 2001.
Conclusion
The second half of 2001 has seen a pick up in the number of GPRS-enabled networks available to both the business and consumer markets as operators react to an increase in the variety and availability of GPRS handsets. The continuing doubt over reliability, data speed, content and the cost of GPRS handsets means that the service is not likely to prove to be a GPRS Christmas for operators within the south east Asia region, as predicted by SingTel's CEO in June 2001.
Many operators across the region are planning to launch GPRS at the end of 2001 and early 2002 as more GPRS handsets, in terms of volume and variety, become available. However, with reported average data speeds currently hitting a lowly 20Kbps due to network and handset limitations and many within the mobile cellular industry admitting that GPRS content is currently poor, operators would do well to maintain GPRS' current low profile in the next six months, as there appears to be little indication at present that GPRS will take off in early 2002. <<
- Eric - |
