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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index
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To: J. P. who wrote (908)10/18/2001 5:15:59 PM
From: Jim Willie CBRead Replies (1) of 306849
 
I believe mortgage interest rates will go a little lower
they will battle with expected uptick in inflation
from all the liquidity infusions by the Federal Reserve
I recall in 1994 when the economy perked up, rates jumped
that really surprised me
speculation can arise within credit markets also
not just stocks

I believe the massive money supply infusions have largely averted a near collapse in stock prices
if stocks suffered like capital equipmt budgets, then we would be in a dire ugly place now

as the economy struggles badly to revive, rates will drop some more imo
the deflation effect should probably take rates down
but suddenly sometime in the future, and my guess is not too far away, an expected brief spike might show itself in price inflation

massive money supply infusions usually find the "performing asset group"
lately it could well be real estate
but I suspect a bubble has begun to burst
with new housing adding to supply
or else drawing away from demand
either way, seems to be a mismatch between droopy existing and continued brisk new

I say rates come down a little more
but not much
maybe another 20-30 bpt
but real estate is in stage#4 as I see it
stage#3 is the flat topping pattern
now it has begun to fall, and in highend the most
fwiw/ jim
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