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To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (130137)10/18/2001 5:38:10 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu  Read Replies (1) of 436258
 
Al Qaeda's Egyptian Leaders
October 18, 2001

Summary

Egyptian radicals comprise the senior leadership of Osama bin Laden's al Qaeda
network. Washington is now moving to dismantle the network by removing bin Laden
and his Egyptian lieutenants, but a new generation of extremists would likely replace
these leaders and potentially cloud the picture that U.S. intelligence is trying to clarify.

Analysis

Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak has ordered the military to interrogate 250
suspected Islamic radicals, including 170 alleged members of the outlawed militant
group Gamaat al-Islamiyya, according to News 24, a South African news agency.
The crackdown is aimed at pre-empting a surge of unrest in Egypt led by Islamic
militants.

Egypt has a history of Islamic radicalism, and many of its adherents have intimate
ties to Osama bin Laden's al Qaeda network. In fact, Egyptians make up the single
largest faction within al Qaeda and play a key role in its senior leadership. As a
result, al Qaeda reflects the agenda and training of these Egyptian dissidents.
Washington's knowledge of al Qaeda, gained through its relationship with Cairo, has
proven useful in formulating a target list for its war on terrorism.

The intelligence, however, could prove to be a double-edged sword. Removing bin
Laden's Egyptian lieutenants could allow a second tier of leaders to rise to the top,
potentially altering the group's agenda and making it more difficult to identify and
combat.

'With Us, or With the Terrorists': Arab Governments in Quandary

stratfor.com
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