On the other hand, you'd think al Qaida would go for bigger, showier actions. That's what they've done in the past - WTC, Pentagon, embassies.
If al Qaeda is responsible for both WTC/Pentagon & the bio-attack, it is still consistant, I think, with a complex overall strategy.
Stated Goal - US out of Middle East(ME). Period. Israel is an afterthought, I think, especially with the US out.
Unstated Goal - create the conditions for the foundation of a much larger Islamic-based nation state that -- one day -- can actually challenge the US. An Islamic Superpower.
Game Plan - They can't destroy the US outright - not today and not soon - which means to get to stated and unstated goals they have to get there incrementally. First, the US has to voluntarily leave or be forced to leave by be public or world opinion. To get to the second, unstated game plan, they need to both weaken the US and strengthen their own power base through a larger nation developed through coalition or revolution
- continue to attack until the US public has had enough and forces policy change. Given the pain the US suffered in previous wars and police actions that really were not the US battle, I don't see this working. Its possible that the attackers know this too, but they may have underestimated the US / US public / world opinion.
- continue to attack until the US is provoked to escalate the response either in nature (nuclear for example, unlikely at this stage of the game) or in scope (include other countries -- which has basically already become policy). The tactic here is to unite the Islamic world or big chunks of it; cause some Islamic governments to topple; suddenly the conflict is covering a lot more ground and perhaps new nation-states are formed in the long run with larger resources....
[is al Qaeda that forward thinking that they intentionally are playing on the dirty relationships that they have in the ME with other governments, knowing that the US would challenge many, not just one, government?]
- provoke the US into doing something that wil destroy its coalition. Some might feel a nuclear attack by the US on any country might do this. If they could make the US a pariah among nations it would sure help. But the US first has to fall into this trap. I can think of only one scenario at the moment - construct a scenario where the US is attacked by a true weapon of mass destruction and pin the blame on an Arab state - say Iraq - the US retailiates with a nuclear strike - and evidence is later shown that Iraq is not behind it. Faniciful thinking here, I know.
- continue to attack the US with one goal of actually weakening it. I keep imagining their minds as wanting to "give the US public a taste of what it is like to live in the ME and see how they like it". i.e. food, health, personal security become targets. Seems a stretch but they may be thinking big here. Certainly they would not be sorry to see fear in the public as its good for their goals and good for their own morale
What makes the US great and strong?
Economy
- WTC is an obvious symbolic target.
- Question, is the impact to travel and productivity intentional on their part? If so... the bioattack *is* having impacts to productivity
- Aircraft attack has affected productivity
- Aircraft attack has affected travel sector profoundly
- economy already positioned for slow down or recession = timing
Military
- hard to fight on one battle ground them as a nation state
- terrorism, hosted within many nation states (unofficially supported or not), creates not one battle field but many, perhaps dozens
Domestic Security / Health & Welfare
- Aircraft based attacks has resulted in security forces concentrating on air travel; other modes might well be under attack in the future to further destablitize transportation
- bioattack is impacting health care in some locations;
- bioattack is further spreading thin available investigative & security personnel
Press / Freedom of Speach / Public Resolve
- bioattack is a symbolic attack on the press
- bioattack is a good terror weapon to influence public resolve
- the propaganda value is immense. Unseen forces causing the US public to cower. Think of how this plays for the home town team of fanatics in the M.E. This is how superheros are made, and may be an extension of the legend of OBL and the Taleban / Mujahadeen (sp?) who "defeated" the mighty Soviet empire. Big big points with the home team. You need the public to think you are a winner if you are going to call on the public to overthrow a government. Everyone loves a winner, after all...
So...
I think the bottom line is this is a big plan, not a short term endeavour. When our leaders talk about the attacks as not just against a target but "against our way of life" I really hope they believe that and are not just making sound bytes up, because increasingly I think it is true.
For anyone that doesn't know me, I am not characterizing this as an Islamic war. I think the perpetrators would like to, and may even believe it. But from our perspective its just a war for power, territory and control over people, just like all other wars.
Just some thoughts, not all well thunk through yet. |
