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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed

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To: LLCF who wrote (130158)10/18/2001 7:40:35 PM
From: Oblomov  Read Replies (4) of 436258
 
He's only looking at recent history, obviously. Let's use the DJIA as a proxy for the market, despite its shortcomings, merely since it has been around longer than any other index. The DJIA was started in 1896, and so there are 86 20-year periods between 1916 and 2001 for which we have data. Of these 86, 5 (or 6%) show a negative gain in nominal terms (1912-1932, 1927-1947, 1928-1948, 1929-1949, 1930-1950).

In inflation adjusted terms, 33 of the 86 (38%) of the 20-year periods show a negative return. They are as follows:

1898-1918 1899-1919 1900-1920 1901-1921
1902-1922 1903-1923 1904-1924 1905-1925
1906-1926 1911-1931 1912-1932 1913-1933
1914-1934 1927-1947 1928-1948 1929-1949
1930-1950 1955-1975 1956-1976 1957-1977
1958-1978 1959-1979 1960-1980 1961-1981
1962-1982 1963-1983 1964-1984 1965-1985
1966-1986 1967-1987 1968-1988 1969-1989
1971-1991

Peter Lynch should be ashamed of himself.
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