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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)
AMD 231.83+1.7%Jan 16 9:30 AM EST
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To: wanna_bmw who wrote (59183)10/18/2001 8:17:54 PM
From: combjellyRead Replies (2) of 275872
 
"I think that with generally larger die sizes, more .13u fabs for Intel is almost a requirement. In the end"

Think about it. AMD claims that at 0.13 micron, they will be able to supply about 1/3 of the market demand. Now I don't know the size of Intel's fabs, but I suspect that they are in the range of Dresden. So Intel should be able to supply the whole market with 3 fabs. Assuming that 2 of the remaining 3 fabs are 300mm, that means the remaining 3 fabs will be equivalent to 5.5 Dresden fabs. So we would have (8.5/3)*80mm^2 or an average die size of 226mm^2 if they were serving the entire market by themselves. Now if AMD's market share is as high as 10%, that would mean an average die size of ~250mm^2, if 80% an average die size of close to 280mm^2 and so on.

Intel is pushing hard for an over-capacity situation. You will likely disagree, but I don't see how Intel can gain enough market share back to justify that degree of over-production capability. This is a suicide move on Intel's part, there isn't much percentage in running a fab at less that 24/7. It looks like Intel is trying to do what the memory manufacturers are famous for, selling below the cost of production because the costs are too high not to.
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