With unbeaten Virginia Tech once again riding in the lead six-pack of the Bowl Championship Series race, the bean counters at The Roanoke Times already are starting to sweat.
Better check on the price of a flight to Pasadena, I was informed Monday.
A call to my friendly USAir ticket swami unearthed the current price tag: The Roanoke-Los Angeles round trip ticket goes for $470.50.
Of course, that's just the start of the damage.
Tack on 10 nights at probably $200 a pop in the Rose Bowl media headquarters hotel. I am certain this will be no $70 night job like the wonderful yet embattled "Saddam Hussein Inn" in Morgantown two weekends ago.
Then you've got the rental car. Chalk up another $750. And meals? I don't know what the prices are like at the Brown Derby and Spagos, but I'll be there.
So you're looking at high 3-comma something, possibly 4-comma something. That's for one person, not two or three, boss. Hey, not everything is free for the media at these big bowl games.
While in this space in mid-October 1999, I accurately predicted Tech would land in New Orleans for the Sugar Bowl national title game, I don't have the same gut feeling this time. Not yet, anyway.
Still, I wouldn't put anything past these Hokies. They could pull this off, especially if Frank Beamer's magic karma starts "flying around" like it did in '99, when all the dominos fell just right for Tech.
Beamer & Co. already have gotten some early help. No. 1-ranked Florida going down 23-20 at 22-point underdog Auburn last Saturday certainly aided Tech's cause. Perennial contender Florida State also has contributed, losing twice and falling out of the picture. Upset losses by Texas (a 3-point favorite over Oklahoma) and Tennessee (an 11-point favorite over Georgia) and South Carolina (a 9-point chalk over Arkansas) have helped the Hokies, too.
Of course, any shot the Hokies have for a Rose-colored season rests on themselves. They've got to win their next four games as heavy favorites -- my Vegas connection projected Wednesday that Tech would be a 14-point pick over Syracuse, a 17-point chalk at Pittsburgh, a 24-point fave at Temple and an 11/12-point pick at Virginia if the games were played today -- and then find a way to upset what figures to be an unbeaten Miami squad..
My Vegas guy said Miami would be an approximate 6-point favorite over Tech if the two played today in Blacksburg. However, in Tech's favor that game won't be played until Dec. 1 in Lane Stadium. If the gods of college football again team with Frankie Beamerball, it will undoubtedly be snowing sideways with a wind-chill reading of about 25-below that Saturday afternoon in Lane when those SoFlas come to the mountains.
Still, 11-0 won't be enough for Tech if two of the four teams currently ahead of it in the current "projected" BCS standings -- No. 1 Oklahoma (6-0), No. 2 UCLA (5-0), No. 3 Nebraska (7-0) and No. 4 Oregon (6-0) -- finish unbeaten. In such a scenario, Tech would have no chance at jumping any of the other two because of it strength of schedule (55th currently) and lack of quality wins over Top-15 competition.
In fact, unbeaten Tech might have trouble beating out a once-beaten Oklahoma, Nebraska or even a Florida, currently 12th in the BCS standings, since all could possibly benefit from "quality win" points from a extra game in the Big 12 and Southeastern Conference championship games.
So what does Tech need to happen to wind up in Pasadena? Beside the obvious of finishing 11-0, the Hokies need some help over the next few weeks. After doing a bit of research -- yes, I still do that occasionally -- I've come up with the "Rose Hokies Guide of Who to Pull For" the next seven weekends.
Let's start with this Saturday. With Oklahoma (-35 over Baylor), UCLA (-31 over California) and Nebraska (-24 over Texas Tech) expected to roll big, the Hokies' only apparent chance for help this weekend could come out of Eugene, Ore., where the Ducks put their nation's longest 23-game home winning streak on the line against Stanford (3-1). Despite Oregon's home dominance, the high-scoring Cardinal is only a 7 1/2-point underdog. Much bigger 'dogs have barked, believe me.
Oct. 27: This could be a huge moving day for Tech. Either Oklahoma or Nebraska is guaranteed to lose because the two Big 12 powers face each other in Lincoln.
The big question is who should Tech fans pull for in the Oklahoma-Nebraska game? I say Nebraska, which my man says will be a 4/5-point favorite over the Sooners. The reason I say Nebraska is because Oklahoma, with a win in Lincoln, should waltz into the Big 12 title game at 12-0. The Sooners would have only Tulsa, Texas A & M , Texas Tech (road) and Oklahoma State left. Of those four games, the trip to Lubbock figures to be the only one in which OU would be less than a three-TD favorite.
Meanwhile, for Nebraska, 12-0 wouldn't be such a nearly done deal. The Huskers would have currently reeling but dangerous Kansas State at home and a tough trip to Boulder to face fast-improving Colorado left on the menu.
In addition, Oregon will be a slight favorite at best -- perhaps a pick 'em proposition or even a slight puppy -- when it travels to Washington State, which will be 7-0 after it handles I-AA Montana State tonight in Pullman. A Washington State victory could take care of Oregon for Tech.
And UCLA? It's not a gimme day either for the Bruins, who have to go to Palo Alto and slow down Stanford's high-octane offense.
Nov. 3: While Oklahoma (-42 over Tulsa), Nebraska (-23 at Kansas) and Oregon (-15 over Arizona State) should roll, UCLA has another potential roadblock at Washington State, which could be 8-0 by this point and another huge threat to Tech. My Vegas connect says UCLA would be a 4-point chalk. Of course, that price could go down, especially if Washington State knocks off Oregon at home the week before.
Nov. 10: If Nebraska beats Oklahoma, the Hokies are going to need somebody to take out the Huskers. While Kansas State has currently lost three straight Big 12 games and has fallen off the map at 2-3, Bill Snyder's troops are capable as they showed Sept. 29 when they took Oklahoma to the wire in a 38-37 loss in Norman.
Of course, the big contest that day will be in Los Angeles, where UCLA and Oregon tango. I'm told the Bruins would a 7-point pick today. If both are still unbeaten, Tech is in trouble since Oregon would have only Oregon State (-11 at home) remaining and UCLA would have Southern Cal (-9 on the road) and Arizona (-17 at home) left.
Nov. 17: Oklahoma goes to Texas Tech and Nebraska is off in the Big 12. In the Pac-10, UCLA could be pushed in the L.A. Coliseum by arch rival Southern Cal. Oregon is idle. Meanwhile, Washington State goes to arch rival Washington, a game that Hokies will need the Cougars to lose should they somehow sweep Oregon (Oct. 27) and UCLA (Nov. 10) in Pullman.
Nov. 23: If K-State fails to take out an unbeaten Nebraska club, Tech's best hopes rest in the Buffs. Colorado, which could get itself in the BCS picture with an upset at 10-point favorite Texas this Saturday, could come into this game with a chance to tie Nebraska for the Big 12 North title. Nebraska would be a 7/8-point favorite today, I'm assured.
Nov. 24: Barring a loss to Nebraska, Oklahoma could cap a 12-0 season by spanking pitiful Oklahoma State in Norman.
Dec. 1: UCLA finishes with what should be a lock home win over Arizona State, while Oregon faces a stiffer challenge at home vs. arch rival Oregon State. Then, of course, there are these two little old games called the Big 12 and SEC title games that must play out.
Summation: Now that your head is spinning end over end like a Vinnie Burns pass, let's see if we can boil all this down.
To get to the Rose Bowl, Tech must finish 11-0. No scoop there.
Also, the Hokies will need help. Again, no bulletin.
What kind of help? That's where things get crazy. I think Tech's best shot is for Nebraska to beat Oklahoma. Then the Hokies need for the Huskers to lose to either Kansas State or at Colorado in their final two regular-season games. Such a scenario would give major threats Oklahoma and Nebraska one loss apiece going into the Big 12 title game.
Of course, Colorado, which lost in its season opener to Fresno State, could be a factor if it upsets Texas this week and Nebraska at home on Nov. 23. If Colorado beats Nebraska to finish tied for the Big 12 North title at 7-1, the Buffs would go to the league title game because they beat the Huskers head-to-head.
Tech also needs some breaks to go its way on the left coast. The most likeliest possible scenario to help Tech's national title game bid would be for Oregon to stumble at Washington State on Oct. 27, then have the Ducks go into LA and pull a "Quack Attack" on UCLA, which also has a very "losable" game the previous week at Washington State.
While Wash State could help Tech clean up, the Cougars also could wind up mopping Tech out of a Pasadena trip. The Cougars are currently 11th in the BCS "projection" and they have fellow Pac-10 unbeatens Oregon and UCLA both at home. Washington State's biggest hurdle, however, could be its Nov. 17 finale at arch rival and favored Washington.
The wild card in all this conjecture is 11-0 might not be enough for Tech. A once-beaten Oklahoma or Nebraska that avenges that loss against the other by winning the Big 12 title game could find itself ahead of an 11-0 Tech in the final BCS standings.
Florida, currently 12th in the projected BCS rankings, appears to be the other once-beaten that could overhaul an unbeaten Tech team. If the Gators close with wins at Georgia, Vanderbilt, at South Carolina, Florida State, Tennessee -- whoa, what a schedule -- and take the SEC title game to finish 11-1, Steve Spurrier's bunch will be right there. |
