Hi Tony and Thread, re: economy
Microsoft's results make me happy. Certainly a different impression from the gloomy situation of the assemblies that have been heavily impacted by the moves overseas.
I recall the recovery out of the last recession was lead by the Enterprise market. (Makes sense too doesn't it, business leads consumer in a recovery?)
So, Microsoft's results could very well make a case for recovery, particularly when considering XP hasn't even launched yet !
Regarding a recovery, when this thing does completely turn around, we'll probably see really bad component shortages because no one is building up inventory on anything.
There's no inventory in the channel on any parts. So, when this snaps back, there's just no buffer in the channel to absorb any significant growth. All it takes is one component to block entire shipments. And just because Intel has all the fabs in the world to produce as many components as needed, doesn't necessarily mean the oems can get all the other parts they need. It just takes one part to hold everyone's revenue down.
The channel is actually already a hint snug, but folks were saying this was simply because all the manufacturers were being more conservative. But Microsoft's report sheds possibly a different interpretation (that a recovery is indeed in progress) on why the channel is a bit too snug on many different parts, across the board. I think the channel should start building up just a hint more of inventory.
Regards,
Amy J |
