I think that the best the SOX will do before it goes and retest the 400 level is about 500 on a spike, I doubt it will even go that high. The fact that I can't make headway on CCMP in the last two weeks indicates to me that the sector is undergoing heavy distribution. I am planning to use the rally in the next week or two to completely unload. VECO was "supposed" to get back to $35, CYMI and NEWP, to $21 or so, they did not so far, a bad sign. They still may, but I am becoming quite doubtful. We'll see next week if MU can get back to $25 and INTC to the $27/28 area, if not, I may bail out earlier (I still have RMBS, NEWP, SNDK, AMD and SSTI, MU from today, and CYMI, VECO, DPMI, and ZRAN from earlier). Luckily, MU is approaching zero cost (cummulative profits since the late September entry a very nice $18.26, what a country...<g>), but it should not have breached $19.50, it closed above $20, so, I'll give it some grace, but another breach of today lows, will change my short term opinion on MU and I'll have to set a reentry target of $14 or so (I was truly hoping for a run to the bottom of the gap down around $30, I wish I knew what I was smoking...).
I must point out that the fact that the new highs list is still anemic, and contracting, is seriously hampering my Nov. 7th ramp scenario. Fortunately, we have a number of other turnips still in the nice pink area, so I will not modify my short term (just two weeks or so left) bullish stance, but my hand is half way to that zipper to take off those horns. For those that are more swing traders, rather than doing the "lunch deployment" thing, consider taking profits in many areas where they have been offered. QLTI is one example where I took profit and would suggest others consider strongly doing the same.
I would also mention that the last 100 Naz points in this rally will not be homogenous nor monotonous (I still see the Q doing OK, except that BRCM is starting to show some cracks) and have a target of just under $30 for JNPR, about $28, for BRCD and EMLX, and possibly the 42/$45 for QLGC as ultimate tops, so take profits (and don't wait until you get these numbers, IMTO). If you wait until Larry's trend model flashes a sell, you may risk a solid 30% of your hard earned gains, all IMTO.
Zeev |
