Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis

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To: Ibexx who wrote (22189)	10/20/2001 11:13:32 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (1) of 52237

>>margin debt is at the lowest level since December 1998 << Well prices are where they were in December 98 for the NASDAQ and NDX so it would seem to just make sense that margin debt is at the same levels. I mean if you can only be margined at 50%-35% of the stocks worth, then shouldn't margin follow that amount? AS for it being a 10% decline from August to September, take a look, Sept stock prices are at least 10% lower. I view this no different than saying stock prices are lower, a bunch of people got margin calls or had to cough up cash thus margin levels are lower by the same ratio. I think a more useful measure of margin debt would be an equity to margin ratio. Otherwise, I suspect that margin debt will just track stock performance. From what I have seen on the boards and what not, no one has changed their trading or investing habits yet which is what scares me. I see too many still using margin, afraid to miss a low and piling into what ever seems to be moving up. Unfortunately, I am not sure where we are going short term. I added some puts Friday as a play on that big ugly candle but then when I ran my charts last night, my daily stuff looks like we are going to move up next week while my weekly charts look like we are headed south. I am going to be pretty busy this weekend trying to sort it all out. Right now I am boxed with calls and puts as I was of the impression that the first move up was real, then we would get a pullback and then I should add some more for the next leg up that was the one that should be shorted. The big black ugly candle Wednesday changed my bias to being short earlier and thus I added yesterday at the close. Those daily charts have me wondering if the first read may have been correct. Too bad there hasn't been at least 32 of those big ugly black candles for a statistically viable study. -gggggg- Good Luck, Lee

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