Zeev, I try hard to be optimistic but I cannot when we have an economic, and political CRISIS at hand. How can you back the expectation of a New Bull market w/ out addressing the problems in the current Secular Bear?
The differences from 82, and 91,92, and 95 to today are like night and day. I believe we are only beginning to enter the Secular Dow Bear market and this should take us now well into 2003 before it see's some stabilization.
We have contracting earnings, loss of jobs, bankruptcy at all time high, and a stock market that is tarding at a P/E of historical heights and continued lowered earnings. In this enviroment how can you have anything but a Bear? Perhaps a Counter Trend rally that may take us to 1850, and 9700 in DOW, but how can it sustain the pull of Earnings Depression and short fall? It simply cannot, and will unfortunately take many naive investors w/ it!
I said it back in August 2000, that 1500 was in the cards for the COMP and I now suspect sub 1200 is in the cards. The analogy that was made back then was to Japans Bubble and where it was then. Yes, we have very different banking here but the big picture is still the same, OVEREXCESS from thr 18 year bull in the last 4 years will make the current Bear uglier then many on wall street care to admit!
Don't take this post the wrong way, I respect your views and opinion. This is from a trader that loves to ride the CTR's as much as the next person, but simply getting tired of everyone looking for a Bull when we are knee deep in bear excrement!
I would love to here some discussion regarding how great the earnings were this week, because all I read in those reports were continued contraction, and continued higher losses. I have not read one report that would tell me the stock was not GROSSLY OVERVALUED! |
