Thanks for the pm mentioning TCH, you got me off on a rant
on another thread on the emerging market experience of the
early 90's.... here it is .....
It's interesting to see how Investment perceptions and
outlooks change over time, both in regards to a specific
stock; and entire market sectors. This extends also to
Investing in Different Parts of the World and in different
asset classes.
I was just talking with Lee- L3 about Mark Mobius's
Templeton China Fund (TCH) and I was noticing that since
1994, it's down from $20 to $7 today. I then glanced at
SGF.
The Singapore Investment Fund (SGF) also made it's all-time
high in 1994 at $26 and is currently at $4.50
It reminded me of how eager Investors were to Invest in the
Emerging Markets, especially the NIC's (Newly Industrialized
Nations) of the Pacific Rim back in the late 1980's and the
Early 1990's.
Many will remember that both Japan and the Emerging Pac-Rim
countries were thought to be driving the American business
model out of business due to lack of U S companies to
compete, in Global markets. Indeed, Harvard University,
IBM, Exxon, GE and many other companies all had programs and
seminars to study Japanese Management Skills, then thought
to be vastly superior the US models.
The Japanese Nikkei 225 average was at 7000 and change in
1982,but had climbed to 39,300 by dec 31st of 1989.
No wonder almost everyone thought that the Japanese were
going to take over the world, economically speaking.
lowrisk.com
"The Roaring 80's" by George Goodman, who writes
under the nom de plume of Adam Smith, is excellent
in capturing the dominant investment and economic -
competitiveness thinking that existed back at the cusp of
1990's.
In this 1989 book, Goodman outlines the vibrant economies
of the Pac-Rim and pointed out that the issue was
being raised, whether America would continue to
be the significant economic force it had been in the Post
World War II years.
The Trading history of the Korea Fund (KF) illustrates the
Investment boom years advancing from $4 in 1986 all the way
to $40 in 1989. Then as the speculative era in the Pac Rim
stocks unwound the price fell all the way to $6 in 1997,
and is still under $10 today.
The Japanese Bubble Burst in 1990 and the Global Flow of
Funds began to shift in the early 1990's. European and
especially the US Equity markets became increasingly
attractive on a Global relative basis.
The Emerging Market stocks hit a secondary peak in 1994, and
then really fell of of a cliff starting in 1995.
Obviously Investors had found Happier Hunting Grounds for
their Global Equity Investments; and it's no coincidence
at all that, the US StockMarket really began an
acceleration of it's Multi-Year Bull Market in 1995. |
