Zeev's Turnips - No Politics Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics

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To: Joan Osland Graffius who wrote (1055)	10/21/2001 2:13:53 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (2) of 99280

Joan, I think that any advance of more than 50% should be considered a bull move. I don't think we are going into a new secular bull move (where new all time highs are toppled). In April of 2000 I suggested a lengthy period equivalent to the 16 years between 1966 to 1982, with a number of bull moves each high having lower valuation metrics then the preceding high. This until earnings catch up with valuations in some 7 to 10 years. I expect the current period to be a little better than the first move back up (percentage wise) from the late May 2000 lows to the Summer highs last year and from the April lows to the May highs this year. Then we had a move of about 41% and 44% respectively. This, providing that the first 30% rise (My target around 1793 for the first move we are in right now) is met with a successful test of the bottom. If i does, then I would expect a bull move in the range of 90% to 130% on the Naz, to just around 3000 on the Naz before Fed's action to reign in excess liquidity, and the consumer's exhaustion get us into the second leg of the "double dip" recession I have been discussing for some time. Zeev

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