Nice post, Tek. Those three factors about cover the waterfront.
I pick 3 as the biggest factor, a cyclical downturn in the economy which slows tech growth which dampens enthusiasm for tech stocks, etc. 1 and 2 are factors but not as important. I genuinely expect the quality of posting to return when some basis for enthusiasm returns.
I say this with some guilt since, though I read this thread regularly, I rarely post here.
Personally, I remain convinced that the long term growth of the internet is, roughly, on track, that companies of the sort discussed here will dominate wireless, storage, fiber optics, and software in that growth. And, more particularly, I think the 9-11 events will speed the growth of storage, distributed computing sites, and wireless. Companies will insist on more than one level of redundancy for storage and rapid, perhaps real time, backup in offsite facilities. And they are much more likely to distribute functions geographically, which will increase pressures for speedier internet access in metropolitan areas.
As for when this will come to past, who knows. But, in the meantime, it's fascinating to watch the ways in which businesses try to manage themselves through these difficult times, to see what leads some to gain market share and others to lose, and to try to determine which companies will be the stronger on the other side.
John |
