4. Denmark To Reduce Lead Consumption; Lead Industry Still Optimistic About Future
walshcarlines.com
December 2000
Denmark will prohibit the use of lead in a range of products, aiming to reduce annual consumption by one-third over the next few years, the Ministry of Environment and Energy announced in a statement.
Environment and Energy Minist er Svend Auken signed an executive order to phase out lead as a component in items from roofing materials to cable sheeting and fishing equipment. Denmark is the first country to prohibit the use of lead, traces of which can damage childrens' learning abilities, intelligence and behaviour, the ministry said. "Denmark will be the first country with rules for cadmium, mercury, nickel and lead and this is in line with our stated objective of reducing consumption of heavy metals as much as possible," Auken said in the statement.
According to official data, Denmark uses some 18,000 tonnes of lead per year, 12,000 tonnes of which is collected for recycling. The aim of the executive order is to cut annual use to 12,000 tonnes and increase the proportion of recycling to 83 percent. The construction industry accounts for about one third of the amount of lead, fishing equipment and cable makers for one tenth each and the plastics industry for some six percent.
Denmark has no lead mines but imports the metal as a raw material. Processing of lead into finished products, covered by the ban, is mainly done in Denmark which means that adherence to the new rules can be monitored. In spite of this, analysts and industry sources said that batteries will remain the driving force behind lead demand, and the threat of substitution, due to environmental concerns, has largely receded. "The niggling effect of bits and pieces of substitution are still going on, but lead has no big vulnerable areas now," said Andrew Keen, analyst at CRU International. "Substitution has more or less run its course. It is no longer really economic or necessary to get rid of lead," said Dan Smith, at industry consultant Brook Hunt. "Most end-uses are fairly steady, except batteries, which are more than taking up the slack," said Dr Andrew Bush, technical officer at the Lead Development Association (LDA).
Lead consumed in batteries accounts for a massive 74 percent of the total market. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group(ILZSG) put total western demand at 5.429 million tonnes in 1999. Denmark was the first nation to impose national legislation to ban lead use in general. While the amounts involved would not represent a significant loss to the lead market, it might have a knock-on effect on other European Union (EU) member states, or prompt a review at the EU level, Bush said. The consensus among analysts was that lead's use in the global battery market was secure for the medium to long-term, as there was still no viable replacement, mainly for cost reasons. "Lead-acid batteries are very cheap. There are lots of other technologies out there, but at twice if not five to ten times the cost," said Smith. Battery consumption growth is linked not only to automobile production, but also to the ever-increasing automobile population, which requires replacement batteries. Analysts and industry sources noted that traditional starter batteries in cars would be replaced in three to four years. A move to higher voltage batteries was needed to cope with the increase in electronic devices in automobiles, they said. A competitor to lead in these higher voltage batteries was still seen unlikely by most. But CRU's Keen said it was as yet unclear whether it might lose out to nickel metal hydride technology.
The overall potential impact on lead demand was unclear. Bush said that automobile manufacturers might opt for bigger batteries, but added that developers were also looking at reducing the weight of lead in batteries. Smith thought it more likely that bigger batteries would require more lead. Standby batteries were cited as a major growth area for lead, providing back-up for a number of industries, including the fast-growing computer and telecommunications sectors. Some sectors had seen growth of around 20 percent, said Smith. The boom in information technology had also boosted demand for lead oxide used in cathode ray tubes in computer screens. Flat screen technology, which used liquid crystal, posed a threat but was currently too expensive, experts said. Lead's use in gasoline additives had been virtually eradicated, apart from a few niche areas. Offtake was put at around 50,000 tonnes, down from 300,000 tonnes in 1979.
Lead was still being replaced by steel and bismuth in shot, but this was a minor end-use, analysts said. There were also some concerns about the metal's use in PVC stabilisers, one of the more significant of its smaller end-uses. Lead is used in PVC stabilisers to stop the degrading of material during processing and exposure to sunlight. Ultra-violet sunlight could liberate the lead, said Keen. Bush said that the PVC industry had embarked on a voluntary agreement to reduce lead use in stabilisers and some market erosion was possible. |
