re: "The DOT coms are gone thus no large scale server, router, e-commerce software sales ahead"
Tech spending was "Bubbled" by dotcom spending, and even more so, telecom spending. I'm counting on dotcom spending coming back, by about 2010, and telecom spending coming back in 2003 or 2004. But, IMO, Corporate America is now reassessing their info infrastructure, and are going to find it inadequate for this new and uglier world. They are going to decide they need systems that are more "hardened" against attack; that means redundant, distributed networks. And that means a spending boom in 2002. All IMO, and I could easily be wrong.
re: "the Y2K scare is over so I don't see massive upgrades in software and older hardware". As it turns out, the tech spending for Y2K was very timely. Not for 1/1/00, but for 9/11/01. And that scare is going to go on and on and on. We will never know if we have found the last "sleeper cell" of terrorists preparing a new and improved method of causing chaos and death.
re: "I expect a "L" recovery". Actually, so do I. Zeev Hed says it well, in recent posts. He (and I) expect, at some point in 2002 or 2003, that the Long Bond is going to start going inexorably up, and the Fed is going to slam on the brakes. And all the loose money which is going to slosh into stocks (just like after Y2K) is going to slosh out. But, in the meantime, we're looking at a bear rally which could double the Nas off recent lows, and extend into mid-to-late 2002. Or even 2003. Says my cracked and cloudy crystal ball. |
