Obviously Id had it right when he pointed out the perils of groupthink (right before buying a bunch of SEBL ;).
Sorry for your losses, SL, those are severe. I think that I would be a bit harsher on this thread than any of tekboy's three options. To be clear, I bear absolutely no ill will towards any participants of this thread, but rather towards the thread itself, and what it has become.
This thread did two very dangerous things. One, it canonized certain members. We all know the four or five participants who are Very Shrewd, Well Off, and offer Sound Advice. In toppling GM from his perch as arbitrator of all things Gorilla, we unwittingly installed some of our own in in his stead.
Now look, every one of the thread leaders took pains to explain that they were not the final word on anything, and that everyone should do their own investigation. I don't believe that they were being disingenuous, and I genuinely like and respect all of them. This isn't about them, but about our reaction to them. As a culture, I believe that we threw these caveats aside with the same gusto that we exhibited in praising our favorite CEO's for being conservative (all the while dismissing their conservative stances as so much rhetorical flourish).
And then, when our idols turn out to have feet of clay, we turn on them, just as we did on GM, when what we should really question is our tendency to idolize.
Second, we have placed too high an importance on eloquence. I think I'm not alone in saying that particularly eloquent expostulations about such and such a company have increased my propensity to invest. Naturally, this places us firmly in the realm of frothy investing; hardly the place we wish to be.
Unfortunately, there are just too many incentives to wax poetic here. We all participate out of friendship and altruism, yes, but also out of the desire to be heard and admired. If we're particularly clever, we can get SI to give us a "cool post", or have our message cross-posted to the fool, thus achieving some small fame.
It is sincere hope that if things turn around before this thread dies or worse, we will be more cautious and humble. It is my expectation, however that we will begin cautious and humble, and grow fat, complacent and overconfident once we achieve some investing success.
ardethan@eternalrecurrence.net |
