Sandeep.. the post I have written to you on balance of
power and alliances is quite pertinent if you read this article..
US troops in Pakistan: India's future compromised
Americans are not likely to leave the region in a hurry and this could hold serious consequences for India, experts tell Varghese K George
New Delhi, October 22
US ground troops have landed in Pakistan and Uzbekistan and there have already been speculations in the world media about the character of a possible post-Taliban arrangement in Afghanistan. But will the Americans leave the region as soon as their operation in Afghanistan is finished or will they cling on to the region in order to control access to the oil-rich Central Asian republics? Security experts say the Americans are not likely to leave the region as fast as the countries in the region would like them to. In any case, the US' operation is not going to be a time-bound military exercise, and the extended presence of American forces next door - particularly Pakistan - could have serious implications for India.
"The American presence in Pakistan would depend on how fast the Afghan question is resolved. If the Americans manage to install a government on which it has an overarching influence then there will be a reduced need for Pakistan. But they would still remain there and ensure that no alternative group emerges. A base in Pakistan will be in great proximity to Russia, China and the Central Asian oilfields out of which Americans can make money. All this means that the Americans are going to be there (in Pakistan) much longer than expected," says S D Muni, Professor, Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU), New Delhi.
Extending military presence after the war and even making money out of it is an art the Americans have excelled in. A classic example is the massive US military presence in the Persian Gull even 10 years after the US intervened to liberate Kuwait from Iraq. A 10-year defence pact with Kuwait ended in March this year and has been extended for another 10 years. There are 24,000 US troops in Kuwait alone, where 10 per cent of world's oil reserves are known to be.
Americans increased their military presence in the Gulf in 1987-88 during the peak of the Iran-Iraq war, with the US Navy escorting Kuwaiti oil tankers through the Gulf. After the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait there was a several-fold increase in US presence. The American presence in the region is financed by oil-rich Gulf countries - Kuwait contributed $176 million in 1999, the largest individual share. There are formidable American bases in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Qatar now.
Now, on the same lines, there could be permanent bases Pakistan. "These bases are most likely to be in Quetta and Peshawar," says P R Chari, Director, Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies (IPCS), New Delhi. "The US would find this a convenient method to influence events in Afghanistan and Central Asia and the Afghan crisis is not going to be resolved soon," he adds. The only objection that the Americans may find is in the form of adverse public opinion in Pakistan. "Americans may want to give as less trouble as possible to Musharraf, who is already under pressure," says Muni. But at the end of the day, public opinion is not something that the US would worry about. In Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and the Sultanate of Oman, American presence is hated by the people, but the Americans manage by being as discreet as possible, for instance by not appearing in uniform in public.
If the Americans are to establish military bases in Pakistan or Central Asia, the implications for India are going to be far-reaching. "It will be to the disadvantage of India," says Muni, who sees the over-enthusiasm of the government in supporting all American moves disturbing. "The present government seems to be giving almost unqualified support to America. Once America is settled in the region there will be no more cards for India to play and it will be disadvantageous to India," says Muni. Major General Afsar Karim says the higher possibility is for a sea-base, possibly at the Karachi Port, for the US. "It is not going to be a good thing to have a big power hovering around your seas," he says. However, Chari sees it differently. "It could also be that, with the Americans present in their country, Pakistan will have to stop sponsoring terrorism in India."
Still, Chari says, the American presence could bring back a Cold War type tension in the region. "Russia and China will not like America's permanent presence in the region." And there lies the biggest danger for India as well - we too could be dragged into somebody else's game. Too costly and with virtually no returns. |
