CIA's New Leeway and the Third Theater
October 22, 2001
Summary
Washington is apparently warning its allies that covert attempts to assassinate al Qaeda members may take place within their borders. After focusing on the domestic front and Afghanistan, the U.S. government is turning its attention to intercontinental threats. To win its war against terrorism, the United States must succeed in this theater but doing so could endanger its coalition.
Analysis
During the U.S. campaign against terrorism, there has been intense activity in two theaters of operations. In Afghanistan, the U.S. military is conducting a now two-week-old bombing campaign and began raids with ground forces a few days ago. In the United States, the FBI is leading security forces on an intense hunt for members of the al Qaeda network.
The level of success thus far is unclear and not sufficient to declare al Qaeda finished in the United States, but there is certainly an intense and ongoing campaign. For all the secrecy about Washington's efforts in both theaters, they are still highly publicized, with daily press briefings by high-ranking officials.
What has not been discussed very much at all is the third, invisible theater: the intercontinental theater of operations. In STRATFOR's War Plans analyses, this theater was distinct from the United States, Afghanistan or any specific nation -- like Iraq -- that might become a target of the United States.
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