Happless;
["So where are we at now? What's your call at this time? UP or down? Sideways, get in or get out?
Do you have an opinion on GRP or PTEN?'}
... I allready made the call(s).
Last week of Aug 2000 - took 75% of ALL money out of the market - at OSX 135-140.
Oct/Nov 2000 - jump from Black Golds cyclical top to Yellow Golds cyclical bottom.
Dec 30 2000 - take all Nat Gas Profits & go short... Nat Gas in a "too perfect storm" etc.
March to May 2001 - play the OSX trading game.
June 2001 - final exit call.... go short OSX (was allready heavy short Nat Gas)
At OSX 58 days ago - called "THE TURN" intra-day livetime... and GRP was one of my fav's.
Taking profits on all those OSX trades here & now - see OSX 82ish as technical AND fundamental resistance.
I'm rolling over "some" not all; of my "TURN" profits into Oil (not nat gas) levered plays - via Calls - not common stock; as a levered (very) play on OIL & MidEast Supply disruptions.
Buying more Gold/Silver on this still Technically intact secular bull run with the rest of the OSX "TURN" profits.
... where are we going ?
Simple.... only where the Mid East Oil Supply Disruptions/War take us... as there is NOTHING on the horizon indicating that the slowing global economies are going to turn anytime soon.
That's why the "TURN" call was made at OSX 58 intra-day; we had a sentiment shift/final capitulation coincide with tax loss sales & some stop & margin call runs... at OSX 58 - we had "no" risk premium assinged to the OSX - and that was a Buy/Longsided Trade - no brainer.
Here - we're nearing fair value and sideways trading - excepting an event/War driven catalyst.
The OSX took 6 months and a quadruple bottom - literally 4 bounces from OSX 45 to 62 during late 1998 - to the spring of 1999 to form the OSX bottom in the prior cycle.
We'll retest any & all lows - allways have, allways will.
I think; other than an escalation in the Mid East; that the OSX is "fundamentally" capped at 82ish nearterm & at 100ish longer term thru this winter - again; with War/Oil Supply disruptions as the ONLY real catalyst to the upside range of OSX 100ish.
The usual and now predictable annual March to May OSX run will be a trade in the making next spring.... limited & defined exposure & capital outlay via "calls" is the way to play the War/Oil Supply disruption - event potential here... otherwise - it's the Slowing Global Economies - Stupid.
Mikey; the boys here taunted us for going short Nat Gas in Dec, Taunted us for walking away in June and then they finally went bearish at the bottom; just as we turned here and now they are caught with missing 30-50% pops of late and sit here frozen in the headlights - not knowing whether to $hit, or blink... they literally haven't been on the right side of a single macro move in the patch in 18 months; they've been re-acting to market moves and not acting in anticipation of those moves. They are trading BEHIND and not in front of this sector - and you can't do that in CYCLICALS... in cyclicals; you must LEAD and NOT follow the market - period.
They got too bullish at the tops - too bearish at the bottoms... say hello to whipsaw city... but, they did get their thread back (VBG).
Call me Mr Hubris; but as Yogi allways said:
"it aint bragging if you can do it"
... and I did it...and GOLD will return the same 3,4,5 baggers that the OSX did. Gold is in that quadruple bottom forming stage that we saw in the OSX in late 1998 - early spring 99... the next move in the golds; will be similar to the 4 week spike of 50% we saw in the OSX during the spring of 1999... tic toc; when, not if... every possible catalyst star in the universe is lining up for Gold - every damn one.... money supply, re-flation, global risk/turmoil, Rogue Market Wave Events - ie: Terrorism, historic derivative/short interest, currency volatility; meltdowns in Argentina, Turkey etc... the Yellow dog has taken long naps before, but he allways awakens - sooner, or later; when, not if...the eventual returns on the gold/silver stocks will rock your socks - guarndamnteed.
Buffet was not & is not a fool... as Silver has outperformed gold on 4 of the last 4 Gold/PM moves...people need to realize both what & why Buffet did what he did with Silver... the man's no fool...the Gold & Silver market cap is miniscule... very, very tiny... it NEVER needs broad sentiment momenteum... it only needs small micro-shifts in sentiment to make significant macro moves... remember that fact...and follow the yellow brick road...
Yes; I am an arrogant, obnoxious bastard... but I'm in the zone - so give me the damn ball , shut up and get outta the way - I'm taking it to the hoop...
ciao |
