How high will Microsoft fly? Message Board

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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly?

MSFT 479.20

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Jan 9 9:30 AM EST

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To: Dave who wrote (62060)	10/23/2001 10:50:28 PM
From: Bill Fischofer	Read Replies (1) of 74651

Sure you are. You're saying that because the Bank of Japan couldn't "save" the Japanese economy from a decade-long recession that the Fed will have the same problem. But as I tried to point out, without understanding the root causes of the Japanese bubble vs. the U.S. bubble such facile analyses are of little use. U.S. demographics do not support the case for a protracted economic downturn at this point. They did support the case in Japan because the U.S. and Japan are on different demographic cycles. The Japanese refusal to let failing companies fail for most of the 1990s also contributed mightily to the length and depth of their contraction. None of this denial can be found in the U.S., so the circumstances really are very different meaning that no easy analogies can be drawn here. Obviously 9-11 throws an unknowable wrinkle into everything, but I don't think it changes the overall macro trends in the economy.

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